Beard Math and Scottie Pippen's Delusions

Scottie Pippen said on the Jump “If I shot as much as James Harden I would average 40.” This is a bad statement from a mathematical perspective. His career high in field goal attempts per game came in 93-94 (17 a game) it saw you post your highest scoring season (22 points a game) based on his percentages from that year (52% on 2s, 32% on 3s and 66% on FTs) if he shot as much as James Harden he would average... 13 points off threes, 10 points off 2s and 9.2 points off free throws for a grand total of 33 points a game. Even taking into account his highest career percentages and assuming the increased volume would have no effect on your efficiency he would average 36 points... less than Harden is averaging now. Throw in the fact that Harden is also throwing in 7.5 assists a night which is more than his career high by a significant margin this exercise doesn’t look that great for him.

If we continue this exercise and check what Michael could have done with Harden’s shot chart maybe it actually makes Harden look better.

Taking MJ’s 86-87 campaign into account if he had hardens shot chart he would have scored... 29 points a game instead of 37 but if Harden shoots MJ’s selection he scores 41. (Because he’s taking less shots to get 38 than MJ was to get 37)

The only high usage guard that could compare with harden’s efficiency is Curry and he hasn’t sniffed 33 points a game.

Obviously Harden isn’t nearly the defensive player that Jordan was but the numbers he’s putting up offensively are insane and have only been replicated by a guy who played in a league where they smoked cigars on the bench, didn’t think people should lift weights and took so many shots a game it makes the Rockets look like one of those terribly boring Pistons or Spurs teams from 2002.

But just for the fun of it let’s plug the numbers for Wilt’s 50 point a game season into our matrix. Harden’s ‘62 numbers (adjusted because there’s no 3-point line would be 49.72 points a game and Wilts 19-20 numbers would be 33.28 (assuming he doesn’t take threes and has Ben Simmons like shot chart.)

All this to say Harden is putting up the most dominant offensive season the league has seen since people decided cocaine was REALLY bad for you and not just something old white people didn’t want you to try and I’m not sure he’s the MVP... this years NBA has been awesome!

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All stats curtesy of Basketball Reference but all math curtesy of Jonathan who had his soul crushed in pre calculus by Mrs. Foster and isn't even confident he knows how to use a calculator anymore.